Spatiotemporal Analysis of Hydrological and Land Cover Transformations in the Upper Indus Basin Insights from MNDWI
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Abstract
The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is a crucial freshwater source for millions of people in South Asia, although its water resources are increasingly threatened by climate change, population increase, and land-use changes. Effective monitoring and management of these resources are essential for long-term sustainability. This study employs the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) and remote sensing techniques to assess spatiotemporal variations in water resources and land cover from 2005 to 2020. Using a region-specific empirical formula, rainfall intensity in the UIB was estimated while statistical approaches using logarithmic trends and polynomial equations quantified rainfall probability and return periods to forecast extreme events. The results illustrate (i) a significant reduction in permanent water bodies and glaciers together with an increase in barren land and vegetation cover, consequently highlighting the influence of climate variability and anthropogenic activities specifically, permanent water bodies/ Glaciers decreased from 22,216.2 km2 in 2005 to 18,816.4 km2 in 2020, marking a decline of 3,399.8 km2 (2%), (ii) fallow land increased from 69,684.8 km2 in 2005 to 83,568.2 km2 in 2020, while, (iii) vegetation land expanded from 35,346.2 km2 in 2005 to 36,257.9 km2 in 2020, reflecting a 16% rise, (iv) the rainfall probability analysis revealed annual precipitation fluctuations, with the maximum recorded as 830.45 mm in 2000 and the lowest at 399.34 mm in 2013, representing a reduction in annual rainfall. This study highlights the importance of geospatial approaches in hydrological management, contributing to the development of sustainable strategies for the UIB.
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