Simulation Analysis of the "7·29" Flood Disaster in the Haihe River Basin: A Case Study of the Shisanling Town Upstream of the Shisanling Reservoir in Beijing
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Abstract
The Haihe River Basin has experienced frequent floods from extreme rainfall in recent decades, with a catastrophic event striking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in July 2023. From July 29 to August 1, Liucun Town recorded 473.6 mm of rainfall, while the Wangjiayuan Reservoir station observed 744.8 mm, the highest in Beijing. This study examines the impacts of this flood in Shisanling Town, upstream of the Shisanling Reservoir, using a new-generation distributed hydrological model with calibrated parameters. Based on the “7·29” rainfall event, we simulated flood processes and assessed impacts on population and infrastructure, as well as reservoir discharge scenarios. Results indicate that under the “7·29” rainfall, Shisanling Town’s inundated area could reach 6.2 km², affecting 38 villages (excluding Yuling), with Beixin Village the most severely impacted (1.6 km² submerged). Approximately 2,935 people, 458 houses, 239.5 ha of orchards, and 105.4 ha of farmland would be affected. The flood peak, with an inflow of 1,627 m³/s and river depth of 7.2 m, would reach the reservoir within 48 h. Once the water level exceeds 93 m, a discharge of 80.05 million m³ is required. At the observed release rate of 30 m³/s, drainage would take 31 days. A full discharge downstream would inundate ~218 km² across nine towns, affecting ~650,000 people, 76,000 houses, 100+ road segments, 23,300 ha of farmland, 10 parks, and 16 schools. This study provides critical insights for flood prevention, reservoir management, and emergency evacuation planning in small watersheds under extreme rainfall conditions.
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